{"id":3845,"date":"2019-02-09T00:17:46","date_gmt":"2019-02-08T23:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/east-sea.de\/?p=3845"},"modified":"2019-02-11T20:42:26","modified_gmt":"2019-02-11T19:42:26","slug":"tieng-viet-dong-thuan-washington-2-0-va-3-vong-tron-dong-tam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/test.east-sea.de\/de\/2019\/02\/09\/tieng-viet-dong-thuan-washington-2-0-va-3-vong-tron-dong-tam\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington 2.0 v\u00e0 3 v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e2m"},"content":{"rendered":"

H\u1ee3p t\u00e1c M\u1ef9-Trung l\u00e0 tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u Trung-M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a b\u00e0n c\u1edd chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu \u201ch\u1ee3p t\u00e1c M\u1ef9-Trung\u201d l\u00e0 tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, th\u00ec \u201c\u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u Trung-M\u1ef9\u201d tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a b\u00e0n c\u1edd chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn v\u00e0o n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Trung \u201ct\u1eeb b\u1ea1n th\u00e0nh th\u00f9\u201d \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t l\u1edbn l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea3o l\u1ed9n tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1edbi tham v\u1ecdng v\u01b0\u1ee3t M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb Trumpism ch\u1eb7n l\u1ea1i (nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u201ckh\u1eafc tinh\u201d).<\/p>\n

Nay M\u1ef9 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u201cv\u1eeba \u0111\u00e1nh v\u1eeba \u0111\u00e0m\u201d v\u00ec chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ebf th\u01b0\u1ee3ng phong, l\u00e0m Trung Qu\u1ed1c b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ee1 v\u00e0 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch h\u00f2a ho\u00e3n \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i leo thang m\u1ea5t ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Tuy c\u00f2n qu\u00e1 s\u1edbm \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cph\u1ea7n n\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a t\u1ea3ng b\u0103ng ch\u00ecm\u201d.\u00a0 \u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 l\u00fd do \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u M\u1ef9-Trung, c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1eb7t n\u00f3 v\u00e0o b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m chu\u1ea9n cho hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, th\u00ec l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i (nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ec7nh).<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington 2.0<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0i n\u0103m, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f2n m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 v\u1ec1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady. Theo \u00f4ng L\u00fd Quang Di\u1ec7u Robert Zoellick (Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi) \u201cr\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng minh\u201d khi m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 \u201cm\u1ed9t b\u00ean li\u00ean quan c\u00f3 tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m\u201d (responsible stakeholder).<\/p>\n

H\u1ecd cho r\u1eb1ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u201cnh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1eebng \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1eed v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 k\u1ebb th\u00f9\u201d.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 gia t\u0103ng c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i li\u00ean k\u1ebft th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1edbi th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u201ccan d\u1ef1 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng\u201d (Constructive Engagement) v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c su\u1ed1t m\u1ea5y th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 (h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 v\u00f4 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n).<\/p>\n

Tuy m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c tranh gi\u00e0nh th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c \u1edf T\u00e2y Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eefa Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u201ckh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn xung \u0111\u1ed9t\u201d (nh\u01b0 thuy\u1ebft \u201cc\u00e1i b\u1eaby Thucydides\u201d c\u1ee7a Graham Allison).<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ebfn b\u00e2y gi\u1edd ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta m\u1edbi t\u1ec9nh ng\u1ed9 v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn ra s\u1ef1 \u201cnh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ef7\u201d khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng \u201ctr\u1ed7i d\u1eady h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d nh\u01b0 h\u1ecd v\u1eabn \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng, m\u00e0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t „Frankenstein“ nh\u01b0 \u00f4ng Nixon \u0111\u00e3 v\u00ed von.<\/p>\n

Nay khi \u00f4ng Trump t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0n c\u1edd M\u1ef9-Trung th\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea5y n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft \u201cTrung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 s\u00e2u s\u1eafc r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i \u00edch trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng (v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi) r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u00f4n h\u00f2a, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i cho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, n\u00ean h\u00e3y tr\u00e1nh chia r\u1ebd v\u00e0 xung \u0111\u1ed9t.<\/p>\n

(Interview: Lee Kuan Yew on the Future of U.S- China Relations, Graham Allison & Robert Blackwill (Havard KSG\u2019s Belfer center), Atlantic, March 5, 2013).<\/p>\n

Hai n\u0103m sau, Michael Pillsbury (Hudson Institute) xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed1n \u201cCu\u1ed9c ch\u1ea1y \u0111ua m\u1ed9t tr\u0103m n\u0103m\u201d (The Hundred-year Marathon: China\u2019s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, St.Martin\u2019s Prees, 2015) kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 ng\u1ed9 nh\u1eadn v\u1ec1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 cho \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u201cm\u1ed9t th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9\u201d.<\/p>\n

Pillsbury ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 v\u00e0 quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 c\u00f9ng th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ee9c t\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn sai l\u1ea7m.<\/p>\n

Khi Trump l\u00ean c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0n c\u1edd M\u1ef9-Trung. Tuy Trump c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thi\u1ebfu nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ee9, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 chia r\u1ebd v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn cao v\u00e0 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn c\u1ee7a Trump \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c (nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ngh\u1ecbch l\u00fd).<\/p>\n

Tuy h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft b\u00e1o ch\u00ed M\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch Trump, nh\u01b0ng Washington Post th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn \u201cDonald Trump c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1edb t\u1edbi nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng trung th\u1ef1c nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9\u201d (Donald Trump may be remembered as the most honest president in modern American history).<\/p>\n

Trong hai n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n, Trump \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1ng n\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng bi\u1ebft gi\u1eef l\u1eddi h\u1ee9a. Nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ngh\u1ecbch l\u00fd, Trump \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u00fang nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u00f4ng h\u1ee9a.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump l\u00e0 m\u1eabu m\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 trung th\u1ef1c\u201d (Trump is a paragon of honesty). (Trump could be the most honest president in modern history, Mark Thiessen, Washington Post, October, 11, 2018).<\/p>\n

Khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t (Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng m\u1edbi), l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn ch\u1ed1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a Trump \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 nh\u01b0 \u201c\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington 2.0\u201d.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1ec1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 gi\u1eefa hai \u0111\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng H\u00f2a v\u00e0 D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n gi\u1eefa Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i. Do \u0111\u00f3, th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn 90 ng\u00e0y gi\u1eefa Trump v\u00e0 T\u1eadp ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u201cph\u1ea7n n\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a t\u1ea3ng b\u0103ng ch\u00ecm\u201d.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t gi\u1eefa hai si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i (c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00f2a ho\u00e3n), m\u00e0 l\u00e0 tranh ch\u1ea5p chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng (l\u00e0 t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u), v\u00e0 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb (kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 h\u00f3a gi\u1ea3i trong 3 hay 6 th\u00e1ng).<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, Graham Allison ph\u00e2n t\u00edch r\u1eb1ng T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh v\u00ec mu\u1ed1n ho\u00e3n binh (\u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn trong n\u01b0\u1edbc) n\u00ean s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi m\u1ed9t ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD mua h\u00e0ng M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 chi\u1ec1u Trump, t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 Trump tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u201cchi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng\u201d (tr\u01b0\u1edbc 3\/1\/2019).<\/p>\n

L\u01b0u H\u1ea1c s\u1ebd t\u1edbi Washington \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u1edbi Robert Lighthizer (30-31\/1\/2019). Hai b\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gia h\u1ea1n ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn th\u00eam 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u (nan gi\u1ea3i h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u).<\/p>\n

(Xi Jinping will Give Donald Trump a Victory on Trade, Graham Allison, National Interest, January 11, 2019).<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i t\u1ea1i sao ngay trong ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n c\u1ea5p th\u1ee9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ea1i B\u1eafc Kinh (7-9\/1\/2019) L\u01b0u H\u1ea1c (ph\u00f3 th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng) l\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd t\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n (ch\u1eafc \u201c\u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1o\u201d).<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 l\u1ebd T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh mu\u1ed1n tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro (b\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi gi\u00e1) \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n \u0111\u00fang l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh (ho\u00e3n binh). N\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i leo thang \u0111\u1ec3 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf 25% l\u00ean t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u00ec s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1eafc T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 r\u00fat kinh nghi\u1ec7m l\u00e0 Donald Trump kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 h\u00f9 d\u1ecda m\u00e0 l\u00e0m th\u1eadt. V\u00ec v\u1eady, v\u00f2ng \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp theo gi\u1eefa Lighthizer v\u00e0 L\u01b0u H\u1ea1c h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ecbch t\u00ednh, v\u00ec ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c tr\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u m\u1eb7t, theo \u0111\u00fang binh ph\u00e1p Trung Hoa (nh\u01b0 \u201cc\u1edd v\u00e2y\u201d v\u00e0 \u201ctam ch\u1ee7ng chi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p\u201d) \u0111\u1ec3 xi\u1ebft d\u1ea7n v\u00f2ng v\u00e2y Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf (chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i), c\u1ea5m v\u1eadn c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao (tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t kinh t\u1ebf), t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng tu\u1ea7n tra (FONOP) v\u00e0 t\u1eadp tr\u1eadn c\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng minh tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t d\u1ef1 lu\u1eadt v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 phi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn r\u1ea5t cao:<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt Chu\u1ea9n chi Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng (NDAA, 10\/10\/2018), v\u1edbi kinh ph\u00ed $716 t\u1ef7 (cho 2019), so v\u1edbi $640 t\u1ef7 (cho 2018); D\u1ef1 lu\u1eadt BUILD Act (10\/2018) v\u1edbi kinh ph\u00ed $60 t\u1ef7 (trong 7 n\u0103m) cho qu\u1ef9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf USIDFC;<\/p>\n

Lu\u1eadt T\u00e2y T\u1ea1ng (14\/12\/2018) cho ph\u00e9p c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef1 do t\u1edbi T\u00e2y T\u1ea1ng; Lu\u1eadt S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn Tr\u1ea5n an ch\u00e2u \u00c1 (ARIA, 31\/12\/2018), v\u1edbi kinh ph\u00ed $1,5 t\u1ef7 vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 cho khu v\u1ef1c (2019-2023)\u2026<\/p>\n

Ba v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e2m\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington 2.0, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 r\u1ed9ng m\u1edf (FOIP), g\u1ed3m ba v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e2m (concentric circles) \u0111ang h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh nh\u01b0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac an ninh khu v\u1ef1c m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn m\u1edbi (ch\u1ed1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c) kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do Washington mu\u1ed1n, c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh\/\u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c mu\u1ed1n (v\u00ec h\u1ecd c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ea7y m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn), m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 x\u00f4 \u0111\u1ea9y h\u1ecd x\u00edch l\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nhau (nh\u01b0 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc).<\/p>\n

V\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e2m th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn trong n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 M\u1ef9, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u201cTrung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 s\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t\u201d (theo Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng m\u1edbi).<\/p>\n

Trump \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a v\u00e0 D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9. Trong Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump (v\u00e0 Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng), nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi thu\u1ed9c ph\u00e1i di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 m\u1edbi c\u00f3 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c (v\u00e0 th\u00e2n \u0110\u00e0i Loan) \u0111ang th\u1eafng th\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Nay l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t l\u00e1 b\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 Trump tranh c\u1eed (2020).<\/p>\n

V\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e2m th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh, l\u1ea5y \u201cb\u1ed9 t\u1ee9\u201d (Quad) g\u1ed3m M\u1ef9, Nh\u1eadt, \u1ea4n, \u00dac, l\u00e0m n\u00f2ng c\u1ed1t cho t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c FOIP, v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac an ninh khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i \u201cb\u1ed9 t\u1ee9\u201d, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed3ng minh kh\u00e1c (nh\u01b0 Anh, Ph\u00e1p, Canada, New Zealand, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u00e0u chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng tu\u1ea7n tra FONOP v\u00e0 t\u1eadp tr\u1eadn chung v\u1edbi M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7n nay, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng can d\u1ef1 v\u00e0o Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111ang t\u0103ng l\u00ean, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1ef1 tin h\u01a1n, kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee3 Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

Trong khi Anh \u0111ang t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm n\u01a1i \u0111\u1eb7t c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u1edbi t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 n\u0103ng cao v\u1ecb th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c (v\u00e0 b\u00e1n v\u0169 kh\u00ed), Ph\u00e1p \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Nh\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng an ninh t\u1ea1i Nam Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

V\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e2m th\u1ee9 ba l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ed3ng minh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c (nh\u01b0 ASEAN), \u0111ang b\u1ecb Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a v\u00e0 thao t\u00fang.<\/p>\n

Trong khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc ASEAN xoay tr\u1ee5c, x\u00edch l\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n Trung Qu\u1ed1c (nh\u01b0 Philippines, Th\u00e1i Lan, Campuchia) th\u00ec m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c xoay tr\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ec3 \u201ctho\u00e1t Trung\u201d (nh\u01b0 Malaysia, Myanmar, B\u1eafc Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 \u0110\u00e0i Loan).<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ph\u1ea3n t\u1ec9nh (backlash) \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u201cb\u1eaby n\u1ee3\u201d c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00ec \u00fd th\u1ee9c d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c.
\nC\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00f2ng c\u1ed1t trong ASEAN (nh\u01b0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Indonesia, Singapore) ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u1ecf ra c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng (v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u1ec1 COC).<\/p>\n

Theo Reuters (31\/12\/2018), Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n m\u1edbi trong v\u0103n b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n COC, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ea5m thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 khu v\u1ef1c nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng ph\u00f2ng kh\u00f4ng (ADIZ) m\u1edbi n\u00e0o t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t bu\u1ed5i h\u1ecdp b\u00e1o t\u1ea1i H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i (16\/1\/2017), Ph\u00f3 th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng ki\u00eam B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Ngo\u1ea1i giao Vi\u1ec7t Nam Ph\u1ea1m B\u00ecnh Minh \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eb3ng th\u1eafn nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t r\u1eb1ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh so\u1ea1n th\u1ea3o \u201cb\u1ed9 qui t\u1eafc \u1ee9ng x\u1eed t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng\u201d (COC) l\u00e0 ch\u1eadm tr\u1ec5, v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec3m trong \u201ctuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 b\u1ed9 qui t\u1eafc \u1ee9ng x\u1eed\u201d (DOC) kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c b\u00ean tham gia nghi\u00eam t\u00fac coi tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam (c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u1ee7a ASEAN) COC ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u0103n b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c ph\u00e1p l\u00fd (tuy Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3).<\/p>\n

Li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 m\u1eb7t t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c (nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9, Nh\u1eadt, Anh, Ph\u00e1p, \u00dac, \u1ea4n) \u00f4ng Ph\u1ea1m B\u00ecnh Minh n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ed3ng minh l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ebd t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1ecf kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n trong s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh Vi\u1ec7t Nam lu\u00f4n duy tr\u00ec m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp. D\u01b0 lu\u1eadn l\u01b0u \u00fd cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp b\u00e1o v\u1edbi n\u1ed9i dung c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Minh di\u1ec5n ra sau khi chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m USS McCampell c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1eeba tu\u1ea7n tra FONOP t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o thu\u1ed9c qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Ho\u00e0ng Sa (9\/1\/2019).<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng gi\u1eefa ASEAN v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u00f4ng Ph\u1ea1m B\u00ecnh Minh gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch vi\u1ec7c th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1eefa hai b\u00ean di\u1ec5n ra trong nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp k\u00edn, n\u00ean n\u1ed9i dung b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3n \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n COC d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh h\u01a1n v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 v\u1ebb t\u00edch c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c ASEAN.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia v\u1ec1 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn k\u00fd k\u1ebft COC c\u00f2n l\u00e2u, v\u00ec kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa hai b\u00ean c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u, nh\u01b0ng hy v\u1ecdng Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd b\u1ecb s\u1ee9c \u00e9p c\u1ee7a c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i n\u00ean sang n\u0103m 2019 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n trong n\u0103m 2018.<\/p>\n

Theo \u00f4ng Ph\u1ea1m B\u00ecnh Minh, trong n\u0103m 2018 c\u00f3 l\u00fac t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd, ngo\u00e0i chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n. Trong \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 quay l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a b\u1ea3o h\u1ed9 v\u00e0 d\u00e2n t\u00fay, khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ecd l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh.<\/p>\n

N\u0103m 2018, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u1eabn di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn r\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, do thay \u0111\u1ed5i nguy\u00ean tr\u1ea1ng khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00f3a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea3o\/\u0111\u00e1, l\u00e0m cho c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc khu v\u1ef1c h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c lo ng\u1ea1i v\u00ec Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c d\u1ec5 x\u1ea3y ra xung \u0111\u1ed9t.<\/p>\n

Trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o c\u1ee7a CSIS t\u1ea1i Washington \u201cD\u1ef1 b\u00e1o Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 2019\u201d (23\/1\/2019) c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u0169ng cho r\u1eb1ng Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f3ng (c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan, B\u1eafc H\u00e0n, v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung).<\/p>\n

Theo Gregory Poling (gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c AMTI\/CSIS), c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c tu\u1ea7n tra FONOP c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed3ng minh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gia t\u0103ng t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1m t\u00e0ng g\u00e2y kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Trung.<\/p>\n

Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, khu v\u1ef1c Ch\u00e2u \u00c1-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1edbn.<\/em><\/p>\n

BDN<\/p>\n

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H\u1ee3p t\u00e1c M\u1ef9-Trung l\u00e0 tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u Trung-M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a b\u00e0n c\u1edd chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21. N\u1ebfu \u201ch\u1ee3p t\u00e1c M\u1ef9-Trung\u201d l\u00e0 tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, th\u00ec \u201c\u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u Trung-M\u1ef9\u201d […]<\/p>\n

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