Trang m\u1ea1ng National Interest m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u0103ng b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m v\u1eeba qua. Theo b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft, cu\u1ed1i m\u00f9a H\u00e8 n\u0103m 2016, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho Philippines m\u00e0 T\u00f2a Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u1edf La Hay \u0111\u01b0a ra h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 7 trong v\u1ee5 ki\u1ec7n Trung Qu\u1ed1c li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c tranh ch\u1ea5p \u1edf B\u00e3i c\u1ea1n Scarborough v\u00e0 qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn B\u1eafc Kinh ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn gi\u1edbi quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn trong m\u00f9a H\u00e8 v\u1eeba qua d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 c\u00f2n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n
Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng leo thang \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c \u0110\u00f4ng B\u1eafc \u00c1, trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2017, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i nguy hi\u1ec3m trong vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. C\u00f2n v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda M\u1ef9, ngo\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 James Mattis h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 6\/2017 trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Shangri-La t\u1ea1i Singapore v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch t\u1ef1 do h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, th\u00ec ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1\u00a0 lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean tranh ch\u1ea5p ph\u1ea3i th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng trong c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh theo \u0111\u00fang lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 nh\u1eb1m \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c tranh ch\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n
Chuy\u00ean gia Bonnie Glaser thu\u1ed9c Trung t\u00e2m Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng ni\u00ean v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7\/2016 c\u1ee7a trung t\u00e2m n\u00e0y r\u1eb1ng, M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd v\u00e0 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft n\u0103m 2016 c\u1ee7a T\u00f2a tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i La Hay v\u00e0 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a t\u00ecm ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c hay ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng „l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf“ quan tr\u1ecdng trong tranh ch\u1ea5p \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c 10 n\u01b0\u1edbc ASEAN \u0111\u00e3 k\u00fd v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t v\u0103n b\u1ea3n khung th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn cho b\u1ed9 quy t\u1eafc \u1ee9ng x\u1eed \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 8\/8 v\u1eeba qua.<\/p>\n
Trong v\u00e0 sau h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng ASEAN \u1edf Manila, Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng M\u1ef9 Rex Tillerson d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 m\u1ecdi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, tr\u1eeb Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng – m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 v\u1edbi b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 6 c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Mattis, m\u00e0 v\u1edbi c\u1ea3 b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh \u00f4ng t\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh ASEAN h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 5. \u00d4ng Tillerson c\u00f2n t\u00e1n d\u01b0\u01a1ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea5p Trung Qu\u1ed1c sau khi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng B\u1ea3o an Li\u00ean h\u1ee3p qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t th\u00eam c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u1edbi Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean sau v\u1ee5 th\u1eed t\u00ean l\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea1o h\u1ed3i cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 7 c\u1ee7a B\u00ecnh Nh\u01b0\u1ee1ng.<\/p>\n
\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho th\u1ea5y, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, v\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan hay b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 m\u1eb7c c\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng cho s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 l\u1ebd th\u1eeba hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n h\u00f3a Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf hay ngo\u1ea1i giao m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng khi\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y b\u1ecb s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i \u00edch kh\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch cho M\u1ef9 th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd \u0111ang s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u201cx\u1eed l\u00fd\u201d Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean, th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u qu\u00e1 t\u1ed1t. M\u1ef9 l\u1ebd ra c\u1ea7n kh\u00f4n ngoan h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb r\u01a1i v\u00e0o c\u00e1i b\u1eaby n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd h\u1ecd \u0111ang c\u1ed1 tin r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch v\u00f4 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 an ninh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a H\u0110BA LHQ.<\/p>\n
Sau nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ecdn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i l\u1edbn h\u01a1n nh\u1eb1m c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf h\u1ecd \u0111ang ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00edn \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n d\u01b0\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c, nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng ph\u00f2ng kh\u00f4ng (ADIZ), ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c r\u1ea1n san h\u00f4 m\u00e0 h\u1ecd chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n
Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1eb7t ra cho H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 \u0111ang ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn. M\u1ed7i n\u0103m, H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec1u gia t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 quy m\u00f4, n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt. C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch t\u1ef1 do h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng r\u1ee7i ro, b\u1edfi chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch. Nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o Ely Ratner \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y tr\u00ean t\u1edd Foreign Affairs, M\u1ef9 ch\u01b0a s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u1eed l\u00fd v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 h\u1ecd thi\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn r\u00f5 xem c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua \u0111\u00e3 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn v\u00e0 l\u1ed9n x\u1ed9n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n
N\u0103m 2016, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c, T\u01b0\u1edbng Th\u01b0\u1eddng V\u1ea1n To\u00e0n \u0111\u00e3 k\u00eau g\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c „chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n“ tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n. M\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y l\u00e0 „b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n“ sau ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a T\u00f2a Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i r\u1eb1ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh v\u1ec1 „ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tranh c\u00e3i“ \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi 80-90% Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf. Theo nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng James Holmes, Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c thu\u1ed9c tr\u01b0\u1eddng Cao \u0111\u1eb3ng Chi\u1ebfn tranh H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n, M\u1ef9, m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfm \u0111o\u1ea1t v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n m\u00e0 s\u1ebd t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch bi\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 li\u00ean minh b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t k\u1ef9 nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh c\u00f3 chi\u1ebfn tranh tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n
Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta r\u1ea5t nghi ng\u1edd v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a T\u00f2a Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf ngay c\u1ea3 khi gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c mu\u1ed1n l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, v\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. Trong hai th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn cho H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng trang b\u1ecb cho l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y ph\u00e1o, m\u00e1y bay chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u, b\u1ec7 ph\u00f3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda ch\u1ed1ng t\u00e0u, t\u00e0u chi\u1ebfn ph\u1ea1m vi ng\u1eafn nh\u01b0 t\u00e0u ng\u1ea7m ch\u1ea1y diesel v\u00e0 t\u00e0u tu\u1ea7n tra t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 cao.<\/p>\n
B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eafn danh d\u1ef1 v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n. B\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi n\u00f3i, gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n t\u1ea1o n\u00ean quan \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a, l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng trong suy ngh\u0129 c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n. Ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3. N\u1ebfu b\u00e2y gi\u1edd B\u1eafc Kinh gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n s\u1ebd ph\u00e1n x\u00e9t gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o b\u1edfi ch\u00ednh nh\u1eefng ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n h\u1ecd \u0111\u1eb7t ra.<\/p>\n
B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi l\u1ebd c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Th\u01b0\u1eddng V\u1ea1n To\u00e0n, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao „c\u00e2y g\u1eady nh\u1ecf“ c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n – tri\u1ec3n khai H\u1ea3i c\u1ea3nh Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n m\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n. Ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a T\u00f2a Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf theo UNCLOS \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh m\u1ed9t v\u1ed1 v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, l\u00e0m s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 nh\u1eefng lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec7u nghe c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1eb1ng sau ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch „c\u00e2y g\u1eady nh\u1ecf“ c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. N\u1ebfu B\u1eafc Kinh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c t\u00e0u H\u1ea3i c\u1ea3nh th\u00ec h\u1ecd s\u1ebd d\u00f9ng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1.<\/p>\n
\u00d4ng Th\u01b0\u1eddng V\u1ea1n To\u00e0n \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u00e1i g\u00ec thu\u1ed9c ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n khai l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 xung \u0111\u1ed9t. L\u1eddi n\u00f3i c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng To\u00e0n ng\u1ee5 \u00fd r\u1eb1ng B\u1eafc Kinh t\u1eeb b\u1ecf ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p m\u1ec1m m\u1ecfng v\u00e0 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 l\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 xung \u0111\u1ed9t. Ngo\u00e0i ra, v\u1ec1 bi\u1ec7t ng\u1eef m\u00e0 \u00f4ng To\u00e0n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng, „chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n“ l\u00e0 c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb thu\u1ed9c ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a Mao, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea1t nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 xung \u0111\u1ed9t, B\u1eafc Kinh s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng r\u00fat l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng H\u1ea3i c\u1ea3nh, l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u1ea5p ph\u00e1p tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n hay c\u00e1c t\u00e0u \u0111\u00e1nh c\u00e1 – l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u00e2n qu\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c – ra kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n tranh ch\u1ea5p. \u0110\u1ed9i ng\u0169 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn trong h\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, tuy nhi\u00ean, H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n v\u00e0 Kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n thu\u1ed9c qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 n\u00f2ng c\u1ed1t.<\/p>\n
Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u00e0o tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh quy m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1i \u0111i \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 d\u1eabn c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 v\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f3. Nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 v\u1eady l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o cho c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng can thi\u1ec7p g\u00e2y r\u1ed1i nh\u01b0ng \u00edt khi mang t\u00ednh quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1807, t\u01b0\u1edbng Wellington \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea1o qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed5 b\u1ed9 v\u00e0o Iberia. \u0110\u1ea1o qu\u00e2n vi\u1ec5n chinh n\u00e0y bu\u1ed9c Napoleon ph\u1ea3i b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn m\u1edbi dai d\u1eb3ng \u1edf T\u00e2y Ban Nha. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u01b0\u1edbng Wellington ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd t\u1ef1 l\u1eeba d\u1ed1i m\u00ecnh r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng s\u1ebd th\u1eafng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh tr\u1ea3i d\u00e0i tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9i qu\u00e2n vi\u1ec5n chinh khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1edfi l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng du k\u00edch v\u00e0 H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n Ho\u00e0ng gia Anh.<\/p>\n
T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c „chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n“ c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111em \u0111\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng cho Washington. M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft \u1edf m\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c xa x\u00f4i, ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 hy v\u1ecdng chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng. Trong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, „chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n“ l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed1i \u01b0u do s\u1ef1 b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. N\u1ebfu Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 b\u00ean y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t th\u1eddi gian. L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u0169 trang Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u1eeba c\u00e2u gi\u1edd v\u1eeba t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi b\u00e0o m\u00f2n s\u1ee9c chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a k\u1ebb th\u00f9.<\/p>\n
T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1eafng ngay c\u1ea3 khi h\u1ecd y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n. Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu h\u1eb9p ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1n c\u00e2n l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng, ch\u1ebf ng\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9i qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian s\u1ebd l\u00e0m M\u1ef9 n\u1ea3n l\u00f2ng. L\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft t\u1edbi khi n\u00e0o m\u1edbi k\u1ebft th\u00fac. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i l\u00e2u h\u01a1n M\u1ef9, g\u00e2y ra cho M\u1ef9 nh\u1eefng t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 cho vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec t\u1ef1 do tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c m\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o M\u1ef9 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi tr\u1ea3. N\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 r\u00fat qu\u00e2n v\u1ec1 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng.<\/p>\n
B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o m\u00e0 qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3? Tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p chi\u1ebfn tranh t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00ec gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u1ea3ng lu\u00f4n mu\u1ed1n l\u1ea5y l\u00f2ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt v\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u0169 trang Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u t\u1eeb th\u1eddi Mao Tr\u1ea1ch \u0110\u00f4ng t\u1edbi gi\u1edd.<\/p>\n
„Ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c“ l\u00e0 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m m\u00e0 Mao h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u00f3a c\u00e1c \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng v\u1ec1 „chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n“ v\u00e0 t\u1edbi gi\u1edd v\u1eabn l\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u00dd \u0111\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a „ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c“ l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc Trung Qu\u1ed1c y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eed m\u1ed3i m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ed7 tri\u1ec3n khai qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c v\u00e0 t\u1ef1 l\u00e0m m\u1ec7t m\u1ecfi m\u00ecnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n ph\u1ea3n ph\u00e1o l\u1ea1i. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn l\u00e0m ti\u00eau hao sinh l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecbch nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u1edf ph\u1ea1m vi r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn, l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u0169 trang Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu k\u1ebb th\u00f9 qua th\u1eddi gian. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, „ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c“ l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebft ch\u1ebf t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 d\u00e0nh s\u1ee9c cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n
Trung Qu\u1ed1c hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c hi\u1ec7n nay c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ef1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi H\u1ed3ng qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Mao Tr\u1ea1ch \u0110\u00f4ng. Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft „chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n“ \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a Mao m\u00e0 qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f2n theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb tham chi\u1ebfn l\u1edbn v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i li\u00ean minh do M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n
Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Holmes k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a Mao Tr\u1ea1ch \u0110\u00f4ng trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea5u tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u00e0 l\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed9i qu\u00e2n li\u00ean minh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u1ef1 do h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n
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L\u00ea Ho\u00e0ng<\/p>\n