{"id":1392,"date":"2017-06-29T20:53:18","date_gmt":"2017-06-29T18:53:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/east-sea.de\/?p=1392"},"modified":"2017-12-05T23:13:56","modified_gmt":"2017-12-05T22:13:56","slug":"tieng-viet-danh-gia-tinh-hinh-bien-dong-cua-mot-chuyen-gia-anh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/test.east-sea.de\/de\/2017\/06\/29\/tieng-viet-danh-gia-tinh-hinh-bien-dong-cua-mot-chuyen-gia-anh\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia Anh"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Bill Hayton l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia ng\u01b0\u1eddi Anh v\u1ec1 ch\u00e2u \u00c1, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n \u201eThe South China Sea\u201c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed \u201eThe Economist\u201c ch\u1ecdn l\u00e0 cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch hay nh\u1ea5t n\u0103m 2014. Nh\u00e2n d\u1ecbp \u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Hamburg b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, ph\u00f3ng vi\u00ean \u00a0Rodion Ebbighausen \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n cu\u1ed9c ph\u1ecfng v\u1ea5n v\u1ec1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00f3i tr\u00ean. Truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng \u0110\u1ee9c r\u1ea5t th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u01b0a nh\u1eefng nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y b\u00ecnh y\u00ean \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i xin gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u t\u00f3m t\u1eaft \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a chuy\u00ean gia Bill Hayton nh\u00e2n d\u1ecbp Philippines, hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch ASEAN, v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn \u00a0v\u1ec1 B\u1ed9 quy t\u1eafc \u1ee9ng x\u1eed \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u hay c\u1ea7n tham kh\u1ea3o.<\/p>\n

\u00d4ng cho bi\u1ebft, B\u1ed9 quy t\u1eafc \u1ee9ng x\u1eed \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn gi\u1eefa Philippines v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m chi ti\u1ebft. D\u00f9 sao n\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 15 n\u0103m nay. Th\u1ef1c ra n\u0103m 2002 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t B\u1ed9 quy t\u1eafc \u1ee9ng x\u1eed r\u1ed3i, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00ean n\u00e0o t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb ba n\u0103m nay, k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb sau v\u1ee5 k\u00e9o gi\u00e0n khoan v\u00e0o v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n tranh ch\u1ea5p, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i y\u00ean \u1ed5n. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf n\u00ean hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1eefng v\u1ee5 v\u1edbi t\u1ea7m c\u1ee1 nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u. Nh\u01b0ng khi nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o x\u00e2y xong, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c \u0111i.<\/p>\n

Th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u1edbn ti\u1ebfng tranh c\u00e3i ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea3o \u0110i\u1ebfu Ng\u01b0\/ Senkaku v\u1edbi Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u00ec th\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n l\u00e0m c\u0103ng \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai n\u01a1i. V\u1ea3 l\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea3ng CS Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n (m\u00f9a thu 2017) m\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea3ng l\u00fac n\u00e0y l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 gi\u1eef \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. M\u1ed9t l\u00fd do n\u1eefa l\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o cho \u201eCon \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01a1 l\u1ee5a m\u1edbi\u201c, v\u00ec th\u1ebf h\u1ecd ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd Ho\u00e0ng Sa v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u1edf \u0111\u00f3. Ngo\u00e0i ra h\u1ecd c\u00f2n \u0111ang x\u00e2y th\u00eam 7 \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a xong. R\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho r\u1eb1ng, Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd c\u00f2n x\u00e2y c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea3o Scarborough Shoal. Khi ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh, m\u1ed9t tam gi\u00e1c s\u1eaft s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. L\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t khu v\u1ef1c b\u1eb1ng t\u00e0u ng\u1ea7m nguy\u00ean t\u1eed m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee3 b\u1ecb ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadn v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n Malakka.<\/p>\n

Trong v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 tranh ch\u1ea5p n\u00e0y, M\u1ef9 n\u00f3i nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 l\u00e0m. H\u1ecd ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ee5 h\u1ecd d\u1ecda k\u00e9o T\u00e0u s\u00e2n bay \u0111\u1ebfn B\u1eafc Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean. Thay v\u00ec \u0111i t\u1eaft qua Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, h\u1ecd l\u1ea1i ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00f2ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 b\u1eaft ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi:\u00a0 C\u00f3 l\u1ebd h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u00fd h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1edbi hy v\u1ecdng, Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u1edbi Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean. D\u00f9 ch\u01b0a l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u vi\u1ec7c, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Obama \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 \u00a0chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y. H\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Trump coi nh\u1eb9 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea3o Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean.\u00a0 V\u00ec th\u1ebf Nh\u1eadt nh\u1ea3y v\u00e0o b\u00f9 kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i, h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0a t\u00e0u chi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n t\u1eadp qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 chung v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a\u00a0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y, \u00f4ng cho r\u1eb1ng, nh\u1eefng n\u0103m qua VN\u00a0 \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, nh\u01b0ng b\u00e2y gi\u1edd l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. H\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, sau khi TQ r\u00fat gi\u00e0n khoan \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng 2014. Hai \u0111\u1ea3ng c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea3ng c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n n\u00ean h\u1ecd d\u1ec5 n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n v\u1edbi nhau h\u01a1n \u1edf m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng \u00a0trang b\u1ecb qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n b\u1ecf ti\u1ec1n mua t\u00e0u ng\u1ea7m. H\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1eafng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Trung Qu\u1ed1c, nh\u01b0ng \u00edt nh\u1ea5t s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1eaft h\u01a1n khi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn x\u1ea3y ra. T\u1ee9c l\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n hai vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch quan h\u1ec7 t\u1ed1t v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c, m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh trang b\u1ecb v\u0169 kh\u00ed cho qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i.<\/p>\n

Hayton cho r\u1eb1ng, Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e2u, h\u1ecd v\u1eabn l\u1eb7ng l\u1ebd b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong v\u00f9ng. Nh\u01b0ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c g\u00e2y cho c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc li\u00ean quan kh\u00f3 x\u1eed. N\u1ebfu h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng nh\u1eefng vi ph\u1ea1m nh\u1ecf c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u00ec Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn c\u1ee9 t\u1eeb t\u1eeb b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng. N\u1ebfu v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng vi ph\u1ea1m nh\u1ecf m\u00e0 h\u1ecd l\u00e0m \u1ea7m l\u00ean cho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi bi\u1ebft th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ecd b\u1ecb hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y to mi\u1ec7ng v\u00e0 hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n

\u00d4ng kh\u00f4ng tin Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd k\u00fd v\u0103n b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y, v\u00ec tr\u01b0\u1edbc sau h\u1ecd v\u1eabn mu\u1ed1n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 tr\u00ean v\u00f9ng Scarborough Shoal v\u00e0 d\u1ea1i g\u00ec m\u00e0 k\u00fd v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng v\u0103n b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf. ASIAN mu\u1ed1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00f2n Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u00ec mu\u1ed1n tr\u00e1nh s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

C\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u00f4ng cho r\u1eb1ng, h\u1ecd c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n n\u1eefa. Sau khi t\u00f2a qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u1edf Den Haag ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho Trung Qu\u1ed1c, h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n kho\u00e9t s\u00e2u th\u00eam. \u0110\u1ee9c, Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec1u mu\u1ed1n b\u00e1n v\u0169 kh\u00ed cho c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ebf Tuy\u1ec1n t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p t\u1eeb \u201eDeutsche Welle\u201c<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: http:\/\/www.dw.com\/de\/es-wird-nicht-immer-ruhig-bleiben\/a-38950098<\/a><\/p>\n

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  Bill Hayton l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia ng\u01b0\u1eddi Anh v\u1ec1 ch\u00e2u \u00c1, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n \u201eThe South China Sea\u201c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed \u201eThe Economist\u201c ch\u1ecdn l\u00e0 cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch hay nh\u1ea5t n\u0103m 2014. Nh\u00e2n d\u1ecbp \u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Hamburg b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, ph\u00f3ng vi\u00ean \u00a0Rodion Ebbighausen \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n […]<\/p>\n

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